A mere 60 days in the past that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard query to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
